Winning money is fun, isn't it? So fun that my bookie won't post individual player props other than "special" player props that have some of the most asinine lines I've ever seen. The most realistic bet from those available on my site would be Alvin Kamara 8 or more receptions sitting at +125. Through 4 games, Kamara has 30 receptions, but factoring in that Michael Thomas has been inactive, I don't feel incredibly comfortable laying that number tonight. Well, not well enough to give it out as a pick at least. Maybe my bookie will quit being a gutless coward and respond to my message about posting the lines, but I doubt that's going to happen so we're going to change things up a little bit here tonight:
SHORTEST TOUCHDOWN OVER 1.5 YARDS (-110)
If the gifs are any indication, you'd think that I'm not confident about this pick. Quite the contrary , because I'm confident in every bet I place, positive vibes equals positive results, just remember that. When I originally read this, my gut feeling was to bet the under because it feels like just about every game I've ever watched has had a one yard touchdown plunge, but then I realized the one yard line accounts for 2% of the entire field. That's just math, folks.
But after a little bit more digging, I was able to find that the Saints only have 2 scores from the 1 yard line, given up four and the Chargers have yet to score or give up a touchdown from the 1. Not saying these trends will continue, but the law of averages tells me this has a 50-50 shot at hitting and that's enough for me. The Chargers are without Austin Ekeler this week, and Joshua Kelley has been wildly inefficient almost all year, honestly wouldn't be surprised to see Justin Jackson overtake him as the starter for the time being. Going to be interesting to see how much the Chargers even run the ball tonight, would not be surprised to see the Saints chew clock and force the Chargers' rookie signal caller to throw the ball all around the field tonight. Don't hate the Chargers Under team total tonight, not one bit.